The Research Of Medium And Long Term Load Forecasting Method For Distribution Network

Power system load forecasting is an important part of and the foundation of power grid planning,and medium and long term load forecasting of distribution network is the important component of power system load forecasting. This paper discusses various models suitable for medium and long term load forecasting of distribution network in detail, mainly studies the forecasting method based on multi related factors.Then the paper proposes a new combination forecasting method for mid-long term load of the distribution network based on the theory of partial least square regression through the analysis of the present situation of combination forecast method,and a calculating example showes that the method can improve the accuracy of the power load forecasting evidently. Finally, this paper develops a mid-long term load forecasting software for the distribution network by object-oriented programming method,which has rich prediction models, good man-machine interface, easy operation and powerful practicability.The software provides a practical load forecasting management platform for distribution network planning personnel.