Study On Marshalling Station Stage Plan Optimal Problems Under Uncertain Environment

As the concrete arrangement of daily and shift working plan in station, marshalling station stage plan is an important guarantee of station operation's efficiency and quality. The compiling method of stage plan went through the period of traditional manual, computer-aided, and the initial modernization. In determining environment, the related compiling mode has the shortcoming as long compiling cycle, poor robustness, and dynamic optimization difficultly. While in the actual working process of marshalling station, for the reason of interference of uncertain information, such as the train arrival time, train make-up and break-up time, and train flow, it is difficult to implement for the stage plan compiled in determining environment. On the basis of existing research results, this thesis aimed at obtaining the robust stage plan with the view to plan compiling optimization under uncertain environment. The main task of the paper is below:At first, summarized the content, foundation, compiling flow of marshalling station stage plan, and exposition of the stage plan optimized model under determining environment;Secondly, analysised the distribute characteristics of uncertain information such as the train arrival time, train make-up and break-up time, and train flow; and their impact towards stage plan;Thirdly, considering the uncertainty of the train arrival time, on the basis of the stage plan optimization model established under determining environment, adding the concept of delay coefficient, aimed at maximizing the train break-up waiting time, this paper constructed the robust stage plan multi-object model, and design the estimation of distribution algorithm to resolve the model;At last, based on the actual operational data of Fengtai West marshalling station, the thesis inspected and verified the model and algorithm post above.