Research On The System Dynamics Simulation & Evaluation Of Regional Water Security

Water is commonly considered as not only a strategically basic resource that supporting the coordinated and healthily sustained development of regional society and economy,but aslo a factor that containing the sustainable benign cycle between the regional ecosystem and the environment.The relation between regional socio-economic and water security is more and more close,the problem of water security has been one of the most serious challenges to the security of economy, society,country and human' s living.Research on how best to resolve the regional development of various types of water security,is the most importance to support and guarantee the all-round,coordinated,sustained and healthy development of the socio-economic and ecological environment.On the basis of reviewing the evolution of traditional concept of water security, this dissertation defines the own concept of water security and the connotation and structure of the region's water security system,and then establishs the framework for the region's water security system.According to applicate the theory and methodology of system dynamics,quantitative characterizate the relation of interactive effects between the development of regional population,economy, society,ecology and environment and water security system,and establish a system dynamics simulation model of the region's water security,which include the four sub-regional water security system of water resources,water eco-environment, water disaster and socio-economic.By the improving analytic hierarchy process method and set pair analysis,the evaluation model(CN-AM) of regional water security is constructed,based on the connection number.Finally,Anhui province is considered as the case for an empirical study.According to the study of the region's specific characteristics and circumstances,the dissertation design 5 program for managing the development of water safety,run the system dynamics simulation model of regional water security and evaluate the level of regional water security.Then,the regional water system and its subsystem security trends and different periods of water security classifications are calculated over the next 23 years,and the measures is proposed to protecte and develope water security of Anhui Province,based on simulation and evaluation.