Study And Realization Of Bus Load Forecasting System

In the "11th Five-Year" period, the national economy continues to develop stably and rapidly. With the pressure of electrical load growth and new situation of the power system reform, it is top priority of power system to ensure power grid operates securely, stably and economically. Load forecasting provides a basis for macroeconomic policy-making in arranging source reasonably and the progress of the power grid construction. Bus load forecasting can be used for state estimation, static security analysis, reactive optimization, local controlling of power plant, and prediction of power system operation, etc. It provides a strong technical support for day-ahead safety proofing and energy-saving power generation and improves the fine and intelligence level of grid dispatching.This article describes definitions, composition, characteristics and prediction methods of bus load on the basis of the concept of load forecasting comprehensively and deeply. According to major features of bus load that changes in the trend of the load is not obvious and the pattern is volatile, it provides a forecasting method based on PSO to optimize BP ANN. The method uses PSO algorithm to optimize connected right value of ANN. It can overcome some disadvantages in BP ANN such as running into local minimum value easily, slow convergence rate and so on. This paper applies the method to forecast bus load of a substation in Hunan, the results indicate that this method can improve the accuracy of the bus load forecasting and generalization quality.This paper is set in the load forecasting and management platform of province and local area all-in-one. On the basis of comprehensive description of bus load forecasting and elaboration of forecasting methods, it builds a set of bus load forecasting design based on J2EE. This paper introduces core module and implementation method of the system in detail, solves some problems of current bus load forecasting such as single function, weak operability, closed platform, low capacity and lack of standardization of the management functions and so on. With the successful implementation of this system, it has important practical value to realize bus load forecasting, and will become a powerful tool for dispatching departments to carry though correlation work.