| High-speed railway is a new type of the high-speed rail system for passengers in order to enhance the competitiveness of railway transport and improve service levels for passengers. With the continuous improvement in quality of demand for travel, the high-speed railway with the fast, safe and comfortable services, gradually becomes a main modes of transport between different regions and cities. According to the developing process of high-speed railway, the construction of high-speed railway changed the structure of transport modes, and brought economic development for along regions and cities. Thereby, high-speed railway has become the world universal trend of the development of transport modes.Although there exists a huge gap between the Chinese high-speed railways with the world advanced level, we still have obtained a series of breakthrough and development, a lot of high-speed railway is being or has been constructed. Changji high-speed is now being construct as the main high-speed project in the northeast of China among them.Changji high-speed railway connects two core city of Changchun and Jilin, it has a comprehensive function of intercity railroad, passenger dedicated line and urban rail transit. Its construction impacts a lot on the development of regional traffic development of Jilin and certainly will cause changes of the origin transportation system especially the highway transportation system. The construction of Changji high-speed railway may cause the changes of the passengers'travel mode and promote the organization structure of transportation to change. The economic technology advantages of Changji high-speed railway may greatly improve the transportation conditions of passenger transport and induce new passenger transport demand. The operation of Changji high-speed railway may decrease the travel time among different district, enhance their economic contact and drive the development of areas along lines. Thus, the regional road network planning in consideration of the characters of Changji high-speed railway and its impact on road transportation system is very important.The forecast of traffic demand is the fundamental step of highway network planning, it can not only be used to analyze the necessity and feasibility to construct the traffic project but also to determine the technical grade and the engineering facilities scale of the project. Therefore whether the forecast of traffic demand is accurate or not, it has great influence on highway network planning. Thus, paying great attention to the forecast of highway traffic demand and improve its accuracy can greatly lowdown the lost and waste of the planning and significantly improve economic benefit.Based on the above background, relying on the project of department of Transportation Research on the road transportation development strategy of Jilin province that adapt to high-speed railway, airport and urbanization construction, this paper analyze the impact on highway traffic demand after the Changji high-speed railway is constructed in consideration of the construction status of Changji high-speed railway and the developing status of the economy and transportation of Jilin province.Based on the research status of highway traffic demand forecasting method combined with the characters of Changji high-speed railway, the impact on highway traffic demand of Changji high-speed railway's constriction is studied in the following three aspects.(1) At the beginning, this paper summarizes the expectation construction situation of Chagnji high-speed railway, and emphatically analyzes the impact of this construction on socio-economic and highway passenger transport. Then the method to determine the influence scope is proposed which can be divided into two steps: the determination of the initial influence scope and the ultimate influence scope.(2) According to the characters of the fundamental data of Jilin province, the paper uses the ARIMA model to deal with the regional economic forecasts, and the SD model to deal with the regional population projections, then test and analyze the two models with the statistical data.(3) According to the economic and population forecasting result within the impacted area, the paper forecast the traffic generation and uses the growth factor method and gravity model to forecast the trend traffic distribution in consideration of the characters of traffic demand. Then the induced traffic is classified according to the construction situation Chagnji high-speed railway and the paper uses the gravity model and the growth curve method to forecast the recent and long-term induced traffic. At the end, the paper sums the trend traffic, the induced traffic and the transferred traffic together to forecast the regional traffic assignment.The main innovation of this paper includes the following two aspects:(1) According to the transformation of passengers transport mode of Jilin province after the Changji high-speed railway is constructed, this paper design a method to determine the influence scope. Taking the variation of travel distance and travel time into consideration, this paper design a method to determine the initial influence scope and the ultimate influence scope, and then identify the obvious influence scope to forecast the highway traffic demand.(2) Take the forecasting methods of induced and transferred traffic volume of highway construction projects for reference, this paper proposed a method to forecast the induced and transferred traffic volume of the high-speed railway in consideration of the characters and the influence impacted on highway transport mode of Changji high-speed railway.The research results of this paper could not only provide evidence for to establish the road network layout adjustment scheme and the passenger transport development strategy, but also provide reference for the research on high-speed railway's impact mode on socio-economic and the establishment of economic and transportation development strategy after the high-speed railway is constructed .
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