Aircraft Arrivals Dynamic Rerouting In Terminal Area Under Weather Uncertainty

With the global civil aviation developing rapidly, the number of flights with delays due to convective weather is increasing significantly. Once the convective weather is detected on route, an aircraft may find another route to deviate the weather ahead, and the key part of this process being rerouting methods. In this paper, I first present a weather model based on stationary Markov chain, a limitation of which is then pointed out that optimal solutions to Markov decision problems may be very sensitive with respect to the state transition probabilities which are definitely uncertain with historical weather data here. A likelihood Model proposed later to this problem is proved a statistically accurate representation of uncertainty. Then for aircraft-rerouting I propose three feasible methods, which are based on STARs, on aircraft flows and on free flights. And by comparison of these methods, I find their own characters and conditions they adapt to. Finally, on the basis of the weather model and rerouting methods, I construct a system for aircraft-rerouting in expanded terminal area, and the application of this system with historical flights data of arrival aircrafts in Shanghai terminal area demonstrates its validity and efficiency.