| On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the existing research achievements on the planning and management of water resources at home and abroad,in the direction of the concept of the sustainable development,the evaluation index system and the evaluation model of the planning and management of water resources is proposed, which is used in Jixi.This research has enriched the contents and the methods of the planning and management of water resources to a certain extent.The main contents are as follows:1.The importance of the planning and management of water resources is expounded through the research on the major problems in the current exploitation and utilization of water resources in China.2.By investigating and evaluating the present situation of Jixi water sources,we have analyzed the planning and management of the water resources and predicted the developing trend of water sources with the development of society.In this paper,we point out that the utilization and exploitation of the groundwater have been to the limit, the rate of surface water resource is relatively low,and the industrial structure is not reasonable enough and the waste of water consumption is severe,people consciousness of water-saving,and the relevant legal systems are not complete.3.The basic theories of the Contingency Theory and the planning and management of water resources.The Contingency Theory including connotation, nuclear opinion,theoretical model,and also the planning and management of water resources including connotation,main contents,aims,principles and modes,all of which can provide theoretical basis for the planning and management of water resources.4.Develop based on Contingency Theory of Water Resources System Planning and Management Model(CWSPM).The(CWSPM) model coordinates water resources planning and management with distributed water cycles model,which not only simulates water cycles in water planning and management course,but also enhances the function of water planning and management model. 5.Using Water Resoures planning and management Model in Jixi.Through the application,the problems and respective analysis in the simulation process and results are discussed.Meanwhile,the concrete process of water supply-demand balance analysis and selection of suggested scenario in Jixi city is given.The last part is the conclusion of the study.The disadvantage and improving direction are pointed out. Besides,the trend of the study in this field is pressurized.The conclusion and the innovations of this paper are as follows:1.Combined with the actual situation in Jixi,the surface water and groundwater model,In 2005 the volume of surface water resources 29930.19×10~4m~3.The exploitation of groundwater resources mainly refers to precipitation,surface water has a direct relationship between the row up the total groundwater recharge,that is,the water cycle and can take part in a modern up-to-date volume of groundwater.At present,the volume of groundwater resources is 11804.62×10~4m~3.According to the hydrology and water resources in accordance with the monitoring and analysis of multi-year basis,the total water resources is 31926.87×10~4m~3.2.This paper which takes the water planning and management as the study background does some coherent predictions based on the social economic development indexes with prediction theory and method in Jixi.This prediction includes 2015's and 2030's water demands in life,agriculture,industry,construction,the third industry and ecology,and water supply are anticipated which the ration predictions.In 2015's total water demand is 21936.21×10~4m~3,which is decrease 4416.53×10~4m~3 than 2030's.3.Basing on the supply and demand prediction the demand-supply balance of water resource was analysed.The anticipation has three schemes:Firstly,For a balanced program of a program,that is,growth in demand for extensive water consumption and regional water balance analysis,the total supply quantity 16797×10~4m~3,water volume of 5139×10~4m~3;Secondly,This is in a balanced analysis, based on the consideration of new water conservancy project carried out by analysis of supply and demand balance,water supply increased by 4969×10~4m~3;Thirdly,based on the secondary analysis,which is further consideration of newly built water conservancy projects and inter-basin water transfer to add the local water shortage,it will divert water outside the local water and carried out as part of the overall planning and management analysis of the balance.The study on the demand-supply analyse of water resource indicates that contradiction of water supply and demand is becoming more and more extrude.This paper studies the planning and management of water resources to hammer at the realization of region water resources planning and management.4.Oriented by sustainable development opinions,the paper combines the planning and management of water resources with social economy development, ecological environmental protection.Starts with the background and the research meaning of the planning and management of water resources,and discusses the basic concept,theory,methods and development direction of the planning and management of water resources in detailed;Based on the supply and demand equilibrimn of water resources and adoption of system optimize and concepts of maximal net benefit with the economics of welfare and theory of value of water resources and boundary opportunity cost,this paper establishes the multi-objective model of the planning and management of water resources,which combines regulation and utilization of local ground water and surface water,and seeks the maximal integrated benefits of economy, resources,society and ecology.In 2015,the program of planning and management,the consumption of water resources is 78980×10~4m~3,which surface water consumption for 57787×10~4m~3, groundwater for 21192×10~4m~3,respectively of the total water consumption of 83.2%, 16.8%.In 2030,the consumption of water resources is 96790×10~4m~3,which surface water consumption for 70819×10~4m~3,groundwater for 25970×10~4m~3,respectively of the total water consumption of 73.2%,26.8%.The development and utilization of surface water,especially Mu-ling River is rich in water resources development and utilization of the river level of economic development of the study area play a decisive role. |
