Research Of Short Term Load Forecasting Method Of Power System

Short-Term Load Forecasting(STLF) is one of the most important contents of running and dispatching of power system. It can be economic and reasonable to arrange start and stop of the Generator in wire net, reduce otiose revolve the storage capacity. It can be reasonable to arrange Generator the maintain plan, assurance normal produce and live of society, raise the economic efficiency and social efficiency of Electric power enterprise; Under the situation that the energy is increasingly lacking currently, the national energy development strategy requests gradually to reduce energy consumption of the unit GDP, the production and consumption of electric power increasingly go to market , short-term load forecasting result become importance basis of drawing up the electric power market bargain plan. So these put short-term load forecasting forward a higher request.This text analyze the present condition and Various methods and mathematics model of the short-term load forecasting. Considering the fact, the specific Comparison of the commercial electricity and life electricity of residents of the recent years is more and more big in the all society electricity, these loads are subjected to influence by load day type and weather and etc; Moreover, the region load level isn't all too high generally, and the load constitute is simple generally, so these loads are also effected easily by load day type and weather factors . According to some area fact ,this text takes day type and weather as the main influence factors of the region short-term load forecasting. Because of indetermination characteristic of the some influence factors, this text takes fuzzy method to process data.The normal calculate way can't reflect goodly weather condition and other outside factors to the influence for load forecasting, in recent years,. the artificial neural network method etc have height nonlinear to reflect the ability of shoot, can reflect goodly the weather factor etc. But lack of the general rule that instruct model to chooses automatically in the speed, stability and the overall situation to order smallest aspects of studying to refraining from rash action, just speed to refrain from rash action at some extent. This text author combine relevant the scholar studies and practices continuously towards short-term load forecasting over a long period of time in recent years, put fuzzy control rule to the RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network, resolve the above-mentioned problem more goodly, and have better applied foreground.According to mathematics model and Various methods of load forecasting, a design of short-term load forecasting software system is presented in this paper.