Geological Hazard Risk Assessment In West To East Gas Pipeline Project

As the key energy sources project in our country, the West to East Pipeline Project will bear the important responsibility of sustainable development of our country, which also has important political and economical meaning. Because this pipeline crosses most area of our country, it may suffer from various geological hazards which will cause unpredictable catastrophe if it were damaged. In order to protect its integrity, the geological hazard risk assessment should be done before the disaster happens, and precautionary program should be established to ensure its safety.In this paper, the existing theories of hazard risk assessment are summarized and the available methods and theories for the West to East Pipeline Project are found. There are many analysis and evaluation on the disaster fatalness and its cause, but few on the hazard vulnerability and synthetic evaluation about hazard and vulnerability. This paper has choosen the Shanxi section as the evaluated object, where there is a typical disaster characteristic, and has done the evaluation on the base of analysis of historical geological hazard along the pipeline. According to the analysis on the geological environment and general economic situation along the section of Shanxi province along the pipeline, the collapse, landslide, debris flow disasters and so on and the material vulnerability, economy vulnerability, social vulnerability were chosen to be estimated firstly as the disaster and the vulnerability factors, and also their influencing aspects such as the terrain, the climatic condition, the geological condition of project, the density of buildings, the flourish along the project line, the population density and so on are chosen to be estimated secondly, and the two estimated factors were used to build the area disaster evaluation model and vulnerability evaluation model. The paper adopts the AHP to connect the above factors to evaluate the geological hazard mechanism which can affect the pipeline, and to ensure the weight of these factors and their risky degree. And the control strategy for the geological hazard on the pipeline is put forward. According to the research results, the methods and theories of geological hazard risk assessment presented by the paper is suitable for the pipeline project,and the evaluation results agree with the practical survey of the project. This indicates that the model is available to the pipeline managers.