Theory And Technique For Optimization Of Traffic Operating And Management Based On Analysis Of Traveler Behavior

The number of vehicles is increasing sharply in recent years, while the road network's improvement is far behind the rate of vehicle increase. Travel demand stimulated by the economic development has now exceeded the traffic supply capacity. It has been known that traffic capacity is limited and it could not be improved without any restriction in a short time, a common solution approach to improve the traffic supply capacity is optimization of traffic operation and management in the existing road network; simultaneously, inducing or changing travelers' traffic demand, therefore the balance between the supply and demand can be achieved.In this paper, travelers' behavior is analyzed using the theory of consumer purchase-making decision process, and then the disaggregate Logit model is studied which is both developed in theory and application. Finally the theory foundation is achieved by derivatives and elasticities of choice probabilities with respect to attributes of alternatives and characteristics of decision maker. Parameters of these two variables are calibrated respectively, which improves the previous research in terms of parameter calibration method.In the case study, the Logit model is adopted to calibrate traffic information effect on travelers' route choice behavior, and then the traffic operation optimization is predicted and demonstrated after setting up more Variable Message Signs (VMS) in Beijing road network according to the Logit model. The results show that there is a 5 Percentage Point Change between prediction and demonstration in the road network's Percentage Change for rate of volume to capacity. Compare Logit model with other models in prediction results aspects should be explored in future research.