The Statistical Model Of Yunlong Reaervoir Dam Safety Monitoting Seepage And Its Application

According to previous dam safety monitoring statistic models and focus on the defects of least square regression statistic theory, the seepage statistic models for dam safety monitoring were established through the Yunlong reservoir measured data in the dissertation, and compared the performance of the two models. The study was not only of practical importance for hydraulic projects, but also of vital significance for promoting dam safety control level in our country.The contents and major results are as follows:(1) The previous dam safety monitoring statistic models were comprehensively and systematically summarized, and Through the engineering practice the problems on least squares regression in formulating statistic model structure were analyzed, based on which it was pointed out that the multi-relativity among factors of least squares regression model was the key matter in causing structure instability and unclear explanation.(2) Based on partial least square regression theory and aiming at statistic model formulating, the seepage statistic model of partial least square regression was established, and compared with the least-squares regression model, it was indicated through case study that the model could effectively overcome the serious multi-relativity among factors; Consequently it could make the structure of statistic model stable and enhance the result explanation.(3) The ordinary partial least squares had following shortcomings: If the model was formulated, it would be fixed. When the process characteristics or operating conditions were changed, the model could be updated timely. Aiming at the shortcoming, the dam seepage safety monitoring statistic model was established by recursive partial least squares regression. The practical study indicated the model could be well adapted to the changes in dam operations, and make a more reasonable explanation for dam safety state.