| The problem of the missile precision analysis and how to reduce the guidance instrumentation error has much concern always. The guidance instrumentation error is the primary error source, which account for about 70-80% of the total error. It has very a strong practical significance for enhancing the firing accuracy of the missile to analysis the effect of guidance instrumentation error acting on the fall precision. Due to the high cost of flight testing of ballistic missiles, the number of testing relatively is small. Classical statistical has a poor validity on the small samples.The paper discusses the effect of guidance instrumentation error acting on missile fall precision based on the strategic ballistic missile, and compares several evaluation methods aimed at small sample and draws some useful conclusions.Firstly, the ballistic simulation model has been established and the standard trajectory parameters are gained, and some important parameters are analyzed. Based on the standard trajectory, the effects of accelerometers and gyros drift acting on the missile fall point are discussed detailedly.Secondly, the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to obtain a large number of samples, and the sample mean and variance of the transverse and lengthways fall point warp is calculated according to the classical statistic theory, which is regarded as the true CEP index. Then the Bayesian method is used to assessment the precision on the small samples, by comparing the estimation results on different prior distribution, the uniformity prior distribution is regarded as a more reasonable and effective distribution.Thirdly, the several assessment methods of CEP for the small samples is discussed. The paper compares seven assessment methods for the small samples, and gives the application conditions of several methods, the Bayesian method is also compared with the above several methods. Then some useful conclusions and recommendations are brought forward.
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