Study On Potential Demand Of Urban Rail Transit In France And In China

The situation of urban traffic aggravated more and more, along with the burgeoning economy and progress of urbanization. Although lots of municipal funding has been invested into city traffic projects, traffic jams didn't mitigate apparently. Urban rail transit becomes the best solution to most city traffic problems, with its advantages such as heavy capacity, high speed, no pollution and the level of convenience for the passages.Because of the great investment and the impossibility of the change of trace, it should be planned before being building. The urban rail transit is needed not only satisfy the requirement but also control the cost of construction. As a result, the forecasting of the future demand becomes a very important part of the research of feasibility. The future demand is a important guide line of the benefit.In recent years, although our country also sped up has constructed the city urban rail transit system the step, but city urban rail transit in our country new things, also did not have the mature theory is the instruction, also did not have the system the experience to be possible to follow. So it must introduce the overseas result of the urban rail transit into our country. But at the time of choosing, fetishism should be avoided. The overseas technique should be closed and ameliorated when being used in China.The method of forecasting in this research is based on the method of four steps. At first, it was used in a French city, Clermont-Ferrand. After being proved the correctness, the method was used in Shanghai for forecasting the future demand of the No.2 Rail Line. At last, the result of forecasting is compared to prove if this method could be used in Shanghai.