| The prediction of passenger flow in the city public transport is a prerequisite for public transport plan, which is also an important pre-condition for the plan to be suitable for the future development.This thesis tries to set up the prediction model to offer the data for the public transport and distribution of passenger flow in the future, on the basis of investigating the current passenger flow in Chongqing, with the help of the project of " the public transport development plan in Chongqing proper".Firstly, the thesis makes a brief introduction of current situation , development and the problems of the domestic and international passenger flow prediction. Then it selects the research approach and main content basing on the fact of lack of data about public transport in Chongqing . Because transport routes are directional on the space, the thesis puts forward a technique of calculating transport current O-D according to transport flows per day; by considering the feasible data collection, the thesis selects several pieces of important social economic indicators; adopts the method of increasing rate and structure estimation in every period; makes objective and rational prediction about Chongqing's social economy; then analyzes the relationship between urban population-the land utilization and the traffic demand; utilizes traditional four-stage method to make scientific prediction about transport flow demand in Chongqing proper. The paper predicts the population of each smallest district by analyzing the city population current distribution; then establishes the model about people's outing to get people's total outing ,population and average number of per capita outing to get total amount of residents' outing; the paper analyzes the structure of residents' outing, predicts the proportion of transport in the planned year, acquires total amount of transport production and absorption in Chongqing, utilizes FRATOR to get transport O-D distribution table. Finally, according to the comprehensive traffic planning of Chongqing, the paper chooses the main transport corridor to predict the transport flows in the planned period.The thought and method about the prediction of public transport demand in this paper can offer some references to the transport development plan in the city. |
