Transformer Forecasting Based On The Theory Of Grey System

Power transformers are key element in power system. It's important for the maintenance to predict the faults in transformer. While the transformer estate change, the frequency of supervise will elevation, then the equal-gap grey fault prediction model is not applicable. The system between the fault information and character value is a typical grey system. The transformer non-equal-gap grey fault prediction is proposed which make improvements in the selection of initial conditions and the modification of background value, etc. The grey models group prioritizing forecasting method is used. A transformer fault forecast system based on the new method of grey forecast is introduced. The test of the chromatogram data and the electric experimental data of many transformers proved that the prediction model is effective for forecasting the tendency of the transformer factors, and the precision is remarkable. And it can forecast whether the transformer is breakdown and the kind of the fault accurately by the transformer interior fault diagnosis technique, and it is proved to be practical.