Research On The Ice-Snow Melting Runoff Forecasting Model In Xinjiang Xiabandi Reservoir

Damages of floodwater are always severe in China in all ages, it brings significant loss to the country and people's life, so forecasting of inflow hydrograph of reservoir are important. According to the floodwater characteristics of valley in Xinjiang Xiabandi reservoir----Ta Shi Ku Er Gan river valley, use five kinds different methods to establish the runoff forecasting model of the valley in the floodwater period, to expect the model that can be able to provide the reliable datum of the reservoir safety running, scientific management and water resource reasonable using. In the article, the contents and results are as follows:(1) Cleaning up the valley hydrology and weather datum, make preparation for analyzing the flood characteristics and establishing the floodwater forecasting models;(2) Analyses the mechanism of floodwater forms and historical datum in the valley;(3) The SRM ice-snow melting runoff forecasting model is used for simulating the valley floodwater runoff process, and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and volume dispatch is adopted as the evaluation standard for the SRM model, the result indicate that the SRM model has the very good application prospect in the valley;(4) The multi-linear regression analysis method is used for establishing the runoff forecasting model of ice-snow melting in the valley, and the model is tested and evaluated, the result indicates that the model having certain application value;(5) Using the partial least square method establishes the runoff forecasting model of ice-snow melting in the valley, through testing and evaluating of the model, the forecasting result of the partial least square model has more improving than the multi-linear regression analysis method, but the explanatory of the partial least square model has not improving;(6) Limited memory static grey model is used for establishing the runoff forecasting model of ice-snow melting in the valley, the testing and evaluating result indicates that the model has the forecasting capacity of the runoff process in the valley, but the sharp point problem in the model's forecasting result, needs to pay attention toin the process of model application especially;(7) The RBF nerve network model is adopted to simulating and forecasting the ice-snow melting runoff process in the valley, the model's testing and evaluating result indicates that the RBF nerve network model can describe the mechanism of runoff sufficiently, and has very important application value in the valley;(8) The five kinds ice-snow melting runoff forecasting model is carried out an overall evaluation, then, establish a reasonable floodwater forecasting project for the valley in floodwater period.