Forecast Of The Urban Passenger Traffic Modes And Structure

Urban passenger traffic structure is an important content in the research of urban road development strategy programming as one of the core problems in urban passenger transport system.The structure of urban passenger traffic not only affects the layout appearance, the road network layout, the efficiency of urban transportation system, but also related to the sustainable development of urban transportation,the management system of urban transportation, the science and technology development of urban transportation and the city transportation policy etc.This paper takes all sides into account: firstly making sustainable development as the target, then looking for the balance between demand and supply, at last getting along with the forecast of the urban passenger traffic modes and structure. At the same time, the paper discusses on the reasonable urban passenger traffic modes and structure from three different angle: macroscopic view, medium view and microcosmic view to avoid the circle.From the macroscopic, this paper focuses on finding the relationship between passenger traffic modes ,structure ,average time ,average distance of residents travel from cities'own development character. It puts forward the concept model of residents travel to meet the broad demand of resident travel. Considering the random characteristic of terminal point , the paper puts forward the predicting technique based on the time&space consuming method. In this part , the emphases are the research on the measurement period and the individual time&space consuming. The practical method is also rised.From the mediascopical , this paper mainly does some research on the characteristics of in-zone traffic ,pointing out that the long distance travel between different zones are mostly the commuter travel. Then this paper gives the"allelomorph"frame of traffic prediction between zones. To predict the travel mode from mediascopical, this paper firstly confirm the scale of in-zone and between zone travels through the mixture land use index; then it makes the idea of trip balance go through the process of travel mode prediction and to the characteristics of mediascopical between-zone traffic, the paper gives the idea of traffic supply prediction on the foundation of road network pass ability. This idea adds the intersection restriction to the Evolving Cut Set Method, and put forward a totally new the minimum cut -- the most flow model to predict the between-zone traffic supply exactly. Finally, the paper ascertain the in-zone travel mode by analysis the relationship between offset ,scatter and travel demand .This paper firstly analyses the relationship between the characteristics of land use, land location ,land access and travel demand from the microcosmic; then introduces the land use ,land access into the traffic production prediction; introduces the average distance into the traffic distribution prediction of the transformation of distribution parameters; at last ,to predict the parameters of transfer curve after research on the accessbilities of every traffic modes.Finally, after comparing with kinds of developing modes, this paper put forward the developing mode of traffic structure of passenger transport in big cities in our country to the phenomenon of population growing rapidly and land convergence.