The Research Of Short-term Load Forecasting And ATC

In modern power market environment, Available Transfer Capability (ATC) of power system is total transmission capacity remaining in the physical transmission network for power market. It's an important index of transmission capacity of the electric power system network, which it reflect the security and stability of power systems. And power system short-term load forecasting (STLF) is an important task of power utilities. And accurate load forecasting is helpful to the security and stability of power system as well as providing for the original information of Load-flow computation and stability analysis. In order to guarantee the security operation of power systems and get the maximal economic benefit, it needs to calculate ATC of systems quickly and open it on a publicly accessible Open Access Same-time Information System (OASIS) so that ATC value can direct the action of market takers. We will forecast short-term load before we compute the available transfer capability in this paper. Now multi-methods have been proposed to calculate ATC, and some of them have taken preferably effect in on-line application, however, theirs'velocity is based on decreasing theirs'precision. Some others gain the precision but they are time-consuming.In this paper, the application of Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model to forecast short-term load is presented. Adaptive Neural-fuzzy Inference System adjusts the parameters of the fuzzy inference system with hybrid algorithm and can produce fuzzy rules automatically. This paper gives the simulation example of modeling to train and check the network, the rules show the validity using ANFIS to forecast short-term load. On the basis of STLF we calculate available transfer capability of power system. In this paper, the calculation of ATC based on the definition of security region, all operating constraints are incorporated directly by using point wise maximum function. In calculating we consider the Saddle-node Bifurcation problem, simultaneity. So a new model for ATC calculation is proposed——smooth ATC model based on security and stability. We make use of the Newton method to solve the new model; the algorithm of dissertation can find the boundary constraints reliably and quickly. It can easily be programmed and used in practical. Some standard IEEE systems are used to test the proposed algorithm. The results...