Risk Analysis And Decision-making Theory Of Dam And Application

Our country is the big country of dam-maker. The dams are found everywhere and play an important role in our economy development. But the potential hazard is also huge; once dams' wrecks happen it will bring serious damage. Along with the old dams and the sick dams getting more and more, the dams' security causes people's high attention. Meanwhile the dams' risk analysis is outspread rapidly through the world. Dam risk analysis is an effective tool for improving and strengthening dam safety and management, which can deeply research the weakness of the dams combining with the cases' judgments to enhance the cognition of the cause and the result of the dam failure for providing gist for the decision-making.The theories and applications of dam risk analysis are studied in this paper on the base of predecessors' achievement. The main contents are as follows:(1) The uncertain factors influencing the dams' safety are expatiated, the specific process of the dam risk analysis is given, and the three common methods of the dam risk analysis are introduced in detail. The decision-making, design and management of dam based on the risk conception are discussed in generally.(2) The method for analyzing landslide risk of earth dam is researched. Firstly, the causes of landslide of earth dam and their uncertainty are discussed. Then the model of landslide risk analysis put forward at the presupposition of the change of the reservoir level is the landslide's starting cause. The Monte-Carlo method based on the most dangerous slipping surface is suggested, too. In a case study, some relational formulas and different data processing methods are presented. At the meantime, the degree of the influence to the dam safety due to the distribution pattern and coefficient of variation of the earth shear strength variable are discussed completely.( 3 ) Contrapose the dam overflow case, the model for analyzing overtopping risk of dam is introduced and the processing methods of indeterminacy of the parameters are discussed in detail (such as the eigenvalue of the increased water level due to the flood) . At the same time, the influence to the result of overtopping risk due to the indeterminacy of the enter flood volume and the flood protection ability of dams according to the design specifications are discussed, too.