Evaluation On Dike Breach Risk Of Hang River In Lower Yellow River

Based on analysis of hang river's actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related with evaluation of dike breach risk, it is put forward that the influencing factors of hang river dike beach risk in the lower Yellow River should involve 4 aspects, the locomotion of incoming water and sediment load, the regional crustal stability, the evolvement of river regime and the stability of river dikes. The evaluation indexes system of hang river dike breach risk and uniform synthetic model are established from the 4 aspects. With the support of GIS technology, the evaluation indexes system and the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy synthetic judgment are applied to estimating the dike beach risk of hang river in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions. The evaluation results of dike breach risk show the following distributing regularities of the hang river dike breach risk in the lower Yellow River: (1) The dike breach risk increase with the increasing of flood. (2) Dike breach risk decreases with the river types change along channel. (3) The reaches of greater dike breach risk mainly distribute in wandering reaches. (4) The dike breach risk of the south bank is relative higher in wandering reaches. (5)The dike breach risk of the north bank is higher than the south bank in winding reaches. Simultaneously, the evaluation results manifest that the evaluation indexes system established from the locomotion of incoming water and sediment load, the regional crustal stability, the evolvement of river regime and the stability of river dikes, can reflect the actual situation of hang river in the lower Yellow River more fully. The application of multi-hierarchical fuzzy...