| The interbasin water transfer is always regarded as the hot spot of academic circles resently, especially which is obvious in water resources allocation of intake area. Many scholars apply theirselves to how to utilize well water transfer, but less of who pay attention to water resources programming of water-transfer area when water is transferred out. So the research is little on water resources utilization of water-transfer area, and it concentrated on ecological effect of water transfer. Nows there is no system research on the second allocation of water resources in the water-transfer area.The paper is developed on Tao River. The analysis of runoff evolve trend of Tao River is the first step and then on the basis of the evaluation to water resources carrying capability of Tao River, it begin to study the effect to water resources utilization of Tao River lower-basin from the water transfer project from Tao River. Finished two foregoing parts, it should be done optimized scheduling of Tao River cascade reservoirs. At length the optimal second regulation and allocation scheme is planned about Tao River basin. The study content and production are made up of the following parts.(1)Long hydro-sequence data is applied to analyse its characteristics of rainfall and change regular of runoff, on base of which intermonthly and interannual change regular is given. Multiannual mean runoff variation trend of Tao River is gained by Wavelet method and the runoff predict by gray topology model. The result shows runoff of Tao River would be a reducible trend.(2)On the basis of analyzing research methods of basin carrying capability, matter element theory is quoted in order to built extension carrying capability evaluation model. In allusion to its shortage, the pro-extension evaluation method with asymmetrical proximity and Rough is put forward, which overcome the lack of only dependent on experts'experience and effectively solve failure of maximum proximity.The result is saticfied and the method feasible.(3)Optimal operation model of Jiudianxia cascade reservoirs is built on the basis of two foreparts. Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO) is applied to its calculational process.For imconvergent and local optimization is in PSO, timely variation and inertia factor are put forward so that its effect is good in power operation of Jiu cascade.(4)According to the programming of water transfer, 2010+2.19×108m3, 2020+2.19×108m3 and 2020+5.5×108m3 are regarded as three scenes. It compare with the results so as to bring forward advice on basin manage when calculation is finished.
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