Weibull-Markov Model Using In Interruption Cost Estimation For Power Distribution Systems

The reliability of electric power system in modern industry is a very important issue. During planning or designing or running the electric power system, we need a full covered assistant technique to analyze system fault and reduce the influence of the fault. At the same time , it is enable to analyze reliability invest in reasonable scale and to get the most benefito At the same time, traditional methods such as Monte-Carlo have limitations. (1) The coefficient variance of estimated values will decrease with the growth of the samples volume according to the relation of square calculation. (2) If the reliability of electric power system ids more higher, the accuracy of the estimated values that calculated by simulation will become more bad at same samples volume. Although this method has more fast speed in computing, its big computing error will limit to calculate interrupt cost.In general, as a data model interrupt cost of system always used to calculate the system reliability. In order to induce an efficient calculation, the Weibull-Markov model was employed in this paper. First, we analyzed the technique of reliability estimation in theory, and compare the difference between Weibull-Markov model and Homogenous-Markov model by statistic mathematic theory. As a result, we found that it is difficult to resolve all of the problems in electric power system assistant. By using Weibull-Markov model, we found a way to judge the fault lost ratio with money.(1) Based on the research of reliability and development in the area of electric distribution system, this paper introduced many methods on how to evaluate the reliability of the electric distribution system.(2) Weibull-Markov model was employed to analyze the reliability of electric distribution system.. Using Weibull distribution for status time, we found a way to calculate interrupt easily. Moreover, there is no limitation to compute interrupt cost. On the other hand, this method could be used to analyze reliability and estimate interrupt cost accurately.(3) The function of interrupt harm was introduced in this paper, and found a good way to estimate interrupt cost.(4). The model of interrupt cost was simulated with Matlab.The simulation showed that this diagnosis method could get good result in the areas of economic and reliability. The experiment also demonstrated that as Homogenous-Markov model was not as good as Weibull-Markov model in accuracy and practicability because Homogenous-Markov model is an ideal model. On the other hand, using Weibull-Markov model could good result when calculating diagnose data. It enables engineer to design checking plan in making policy. By the way of fixed quantity estimation for interrupt cost, it is helpful for engineer to design scientific examine and repair plan, This result could apply benefit in electric system reliability analysis.