Uncertainty Risk Analysis Method Study Of Through Section Of Water Pipeline

Water pipeline is the main artery of the modern industry and city life, which iscalled lifeline engineering. The through sections of water pipeline, buried under rivers,are the important parts of pipelines and the key components easy to be destructed.Once they are destroyed, the normal function of water pipeline is strongly affected.Furthermore, it will lead big loss to the national economy and the people's livelihoodwhen they are destroyed seriously. As a result, there is great meaning to study the riskevaluation method of water pipeline through sections of effectively, and bring forwardsome reasonable measures as well as management suggestions.There are two kinds of risk factors of water pipeline through sections, which aredeterminate and indeterminate factors. This paper deals with the indeterminate ones.In the paper, the risk evaluation theories and methods are used onto the engineeringpractice of water pipeline through section. Making the project, New Yongding Riverthrough section of "Inviting Luanhe River to Tianjin Engineering" as an example, thepaper finds some risk points for the pipeline, since it has been using for several years.According the analysis, the paper brings forward some remarkable key points aboutmanagement and gives the similar project a reference model.Firstly, according to international project experience and information offered bylocal water conservancy department, the through section risk equivalency isdetermined. Then employ Brainstorming method to identify the indeterminate riskfactors, use Integrated Grade method to establish risk-evaluating criterion and inviteexperts to grade them. Thirdly, quantify the risk probability and risk consequence ofeach risk factor by using general fuzzy evaluation method. And apply AHP to definiteeach risk event's weight coefficient, which is used to calculate the system's risk value.At the end of the paper, the conclusion about the article and is given, which isfollowed by some advice about pipeline management.