An Integrated Risk Coupling Method To Evaluate The Operation Safety Of Water Supply Network Considering The Influence Of Temperature

With the implementation and development of China’s 13 th five-year plan and the continuous improvement of urbanization level,the water supply industry is developing rapidly.As an important part of the municipal water supply network,water supply network undertakes the important task of transporting water for urban life and production.However,water supply pipes,which are usually buried below the surface,face a number of risk factors that may lead to the rupture of water supply pipes,causing serious consequences such as water failure,water accumulation on roads,traffic obstruction and ground subsidence.Therefore,it is of great significance to adopt scientific and reasonable evaluation methods to evaluate the risk of the operation safety of urban water supply pipe network,timely pay attention to and maintain the pipelines with high risk,reduce the occurrence of water supply pipe accidents,maintain social stability and ensure the normal production and life of the people.This paper adopts the method of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation to focus on the risk assessment of water supply pipeline in operation period.Firstly,the study of temperature index was carried out.ABAQUS finite element software was used to calculate and analyze the stress and displacement of water supply pipelines in different regions and seasons,and the evaluation grade of regional index and seasonal index was divided according to the influence mechanism of temperature.After that,the evaluation index system of water supply pipe network operation safety risk was established,the coupling weight of evaluation index was calculated by network analysis method,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of water supply pipe network operation safety was established.Based on this model,the comprehensive risk evaluation software of water supply pipe network operation safety was compiled.Finally,the risk assessment of 2999 pipe sections in area A was carried out,the singlefactor fuzzy assessment and multi-factor fuzzy comprehensive assessment were analyzed,and the risk distribution of each evaluation index was statistically analyzed.In this paper,the research results show that the index of region,Ι area highest risk level;Among the seasonal indicators,winter has the highest risk level.Applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on network analysis,the risk assessment of 2999 pipe sections in area A was carried out.The results showed that the overall performance of the water supply pipe network in this area was good,and the normal water supply could be completed only by strengthening the monitoring of individual pipe sections.According to the results of risk assessment,the distribution of risk levels of each evaluation index was statistically analyzed,and the rationality of the evaluation level was verified.