| Water is the headspring of all life. But the problem of water shortages is more and more serious since the 21st century. To solve the contradiction between water supply and water demand has been an important subject in the socio-economic sustainable development.The paper takes Shandong Peninsula as an example. On the basis of all-round appraising the present situation and analyzing the main problem in exploitation and utilization of water resources in Shandong Peninsula,The volumes of water demand and water supply in various scenarios years are forecasted. The paper uses the twice -water-balance method to analyze synthetically the status of water demand and supply in Shandong Peninsula and cities belonging to it. Some measures, that slove the water shortage problom, are brought forward. The main content is as follow:1. An comprehensive evaluation on water resources status of Shandong Peninsula .In this section, the paper computes and analyzes the water resources volume, appraises the quality and the present exploitation and utilization situation of water resources, and also construes the characteristic of water resources distribution of Shandong Peninsula and the existing problems in water resources development and utilization.The total water resources in Shandong Peninsula are 14 billion m3 ,however the water resources are unevenly distributed spatially, water resources are entirely centralized within a year and distinct seriously between abundant hydrological year and catastrophic dry hydrological year. Water resources volume and water demand volume is not consistent in temporal and process change, so Shandong Peninsula is wholly a water-shortage region for resources deficit. The actual utilization ratio of water resources in this area is 54.0% from 1998 to 2003 statistic data. In the present layout of hydraulic project, the situation of water shorage is relatively severe in Shandong Peninsula.2. Based on the present available water supply and the result of forecasting water demand volumes in various scenarios years, first-time water balance analysis is carried out and the present demand-supply situation of water resources of various municipalities in Shandong Peninsula is analyzed. From the analyzing result, the following conclusion could be obtained, that is, Shandong Peninsula will still face the challenges of water shortage in the early stage of the 21st century. The situation of water shortage varies in various scenarios years, the water shortage status will be worse in 2020 scenarios year. The deficit of water resources have become the "bottlenecks" restricting problem of the sustainable economic and social development of Shandong Peninsula.3.The paper brings forward some consolidated measures, including water-saving, development and utilization of new local water resources, inter-basin water, united management of water resources etc, to solve water deficit in Shandong Peninsula. Based on these, the second-time water balance analysis is carried out. Results indicate that so far as the proposed water quantity diverted from the South-to-North Water Project is achieved, the water shortage problem of Shandong Peninsula will be alleviated in 2010 scenarios year. In case of 50% guarantee rates the water shortage rate will be 2.1%. However, the watershortage status will expanded in 2020 scenarios year, the water shortage rate will be 3.6%. water resources balance could be achieved in hydrological normal year.4.The countermeasures on sustainable utilization of water resources in Shandong Peninsula is put forward combined with the present status of this area. These measures mainly include adjustment of the industrial structure, reforming water resources management system, efficient utilization of water resources and optimizing the allocation, setting up a proper water price system, reinforcing water resources protection etc. Only the sustainable utilization of water resources in Shandong Peninsula is realized, the freshwater "bottlenecks" problem in this region can be solved, and this will accelerate the harmonious development of population,resources, economy, society and environment. |
