The Research On Risk Management Of Construction Diversion Of Low-head Navigational Junction

During the construction of Low-head Navigational Junction, whether the scheme of construction diversion is good or not affects not only the investment of project, the operational cost of system and the time limit of project, but also the periphery environment and the safety of project. Considering that project construction environment is often atrocious, and the construction is influenced by many uncertainty factors, there are risks in the construction of projects. Therefore it is necessary to connect risks with the choosing of scheme of diversion and as far as possible to make the selected diversion design discharge approach the actual construction discharge in order to reach the unification of economy and safety. Based on theories of the choosing of scheme of diversion overseas and home and considering characters of Low-head Navigational Junction, the Paper discussed following basic contents: First, discussed the purpose and meaning of the paper, and researched the present situation for risk-decision of diversion scheme overseas and home; found out the main risks happened during diversion and then discussed the process and method of choosing better cofferdam form; established a risk-decision model of diversion, then analyzed the major factors and their definite methods that affect the scheme decision of diversion of Low-head Navigational Junction; analyzed the Zhuzhou navigation junction with the discussed theory and method. Main accomplishments are as follows: 1, Analyzed the differences between Low-head Navigational Junction and water power Junction, then pointed out the characteristic of constructions of Low-head Navigational Junction and its diversion; 2, According to the characteristic of diversion construction of Low-head Navigational Junction, summarized the characteristic and the form of its suitable cofferdam, and then discussed the method of choosing better cofferdam; 3, Put forward the 6 major factors and their definite methods that affect the scheme decision of diversion of Low-head Navigational Junction; 4, Combining present Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Theory, established risk decision model of diversion scheme. In which attribute value was expressed with the form of interval number, weight was calculated with the concept of deviation degree of intervals, projection ranking method of Multiple Attribute Decision Making model was adopted to reach the better choice; 5, Analyzed the Zhuzhou navigation junction with the discussed theory and method, and the result was put forward that the risk decision model of diversion scheme was effective.