The Predicting Method Research Of Urban Railway Transportation Flow

The predicting of urban rail transportation flow of passengers is a new study developed in recent years. Through predicting the flow of circuit section, the flow of transfer, flow of entrances and exits of station ,etc, It offer the important quantization index for the appraisal , track of the planning network scheme. The science decision to the rail transportation project has important meanings. After Summing up the land use method and four stage model and two kinds of methods in thesis, and note the deficiencies of original four stage laws, it put forward rational improvement , set up new prediction model, predict the law after developing four stage rail transportation. In the calculation of the model parameter of shifting rate of rail transportation, I write standard procedure of MNL model in common use in VB language. In the track flow of passengers assigns and calculates, I introduce the software of traffic planning, TransCAD. This text finally use " the rail transportation network plan of Wuxi " and content of" master plan of city of Wuxi" to calculate every circuit full-time and peak the section flow of passengers of C-3 scheme in interim report, and has got important data , such as average time of going out of track utilization ratio , passenger of this scheme ,etc. The new predicting method is concise, effective, and practical.