The Utility Of Combination Forecasting Method In Mid-long Term Load Forecasting

Mid-long term load forecasting for power system is one of the basic works of power planning for cities. It provides necessary and basic data for power planning. The precision of these data decides the quality of power planning. So accurate forecasting is the objective of many people working for power system.There are lots of forecasting methods, and each one has its own applicable range. So it's impossible for every method applicable to all situations. But combination forecasting method can combine the forecasting data resulted from kinds of single forecasting methods, it can synthetize useful information of every single method to the maximum extent and consider more systemic and comprehensive factors compared with every single method. Meanwhile, the combination forecasting method can effectively reduce the effect of stochastic factors acting on the electric load in every single method, and then the precision of forecasting data resulted from the combination forecasting method will be improved. When combination forecasting method is concerned, how to choose the best appropriate single method to represent the characteristic of combination forecasting method to the fullest extent and how to give suitable weight to every single method being chose are the emphases and difficulties of combination forecasting method.Combination forecasting method is based on the single forecasting model.