The Analysis And Modeling Of Non-subjective Factors For Traffic Accident

Safety and smooth are the eternal themes in the road traffic. This thesis analyses the effects of non-subjective factors, especially the road linetypes to traffic accidents, then calculates, analyzes the traffic accident parameter applying the negative binomial regression method and curve fitting method. This paper studies and finds the relations between traffic accidents and road linetype by utilizing the direct analytic method. An evaluation model to the road traffic safety is also constructed to analyze the road conditions and the advice to prevent traffic accidents are proposedin the thesis.After the traffic accident harmfulness and road traffic safety conditions in our country are analyzed, it is expounded in the paper that non-subjective factors especially road linetypes for traffic accident play an important role to form traffic accidents. The thesis has introduced the research approaches correlated with traffic accident analysis both at China and abroad and analyzed several kinds of methods in direct analytic approach and indirect analytic approach at present. The paper also points out the advantages and disadvantages of these methods. The negative binomial regression method is applied to analyze the traffic accident parameters. Then this paper analyzes the relations between length of straight line, radius of curve and traffic accident. At the same time, the paper also analyzes the relations between slope angle, slope length, vertical curve radius and traffic accident. Focusing on analyzing the relation between the combination of linetype and traffic rate, the paper proposes an evaluation model for road linetype continuity, which is suitable for road conditions in China. Finally, This paper sets up a model to evaluate safety level of road linetype and to confirm the position of more traffic accidents is constructed. In addition, the model is verified with the real traffic accident data on Beijing-Shijiazhuang and Beijing-Qinghuangdao expressway and it's indicated that the model matches with real traffic accident rate very well. It can be proved that the model reflects the relation between the road linetype and road safety level.Some advices are suggested to prevent traffic accident by the author.