Study On Risk Evaluation Method For Dam Operation

From the point of view of dam safety operation, identification and analysis of the potential risk during dam operation is studied. At the meantime, a risk evaluation model of dam operation is explored on the basis of the theory of large-scale system. The main contents are as follows.(1) The causes of dam failure and serious accidents domestic and abroad are analyzed. And then the technique of the analytic hierarchy process is improved employing the genetic algorithms. By use of this method the risk identification model of dam operation is established.(2) The concept of risk degree of dam operation is put forward. And then the analysis method of risk degree of dam operation based on monitoring data is researched. In addition, the risk loss analysis of dam operation is discussed.(3) Based on the multi-objective programming of the large-scale system, the risk decision-making theory and fast queuing theory, applying related methods of fuzzy theory the defect selection model and the optimization rehabilitation model of dam group are constructed.(4) Applying the models and methods presented in this thesis, operation risks of the Gu Tianxi cascade dams in Fujian province are comprehensively analyzed. According to the results, the rehabilitation order of the cascade dams is proposed.