| Based on the summarizing of dam safety monitoring general situation, the external measure data of concrete dam are systematically researched by using the theories and methods of mathematics and mechanics combined with the knowledge of dam engineering. Mathematics statistic model of the main observation variables and horizontal displacement hybrid model of typical monolith of Huangtankou concrete gravity dam are established. Through model analysis and parameter inversion, taking into account of water level and temperature, deformation monitoring control index of typical monolith is determined by the improved method of probability. The primary contents are as follows:1. Discussed are the basic principle and method of establishing mathematical models of main observation variables of concrete gravity dam.2. Horizontal displacement variation rules according to water level and temperature are researched by analyzing that of Huangtankou concrete gravity dam.3. Through analyzing the seepage observation data of Huangtankou concrete gravity dam, foundation seepage behavior are reasonably evaluated. The reason of seepage force rising of individual monolith is impervious elements' flaw and drain holes' block.4. Horizontal displacement hybrid model of typical monolith of Huangtankou concrete gravity dam are established and mechanics parameters of the dam and its foundation are inverse analyzed.5. Taking into account of water level and temperature, horizontal displacement monitoring control index of typical monolith of Huangtankou concrete gravity dam is determined by the improved method of probability, which can be used as a reference for dam safety monitoring. |