A Study On Forecasting And Discontinuating Strategy Of Intercity High - Speed Rail

With the fast development of economy, mass capacity railway transportation has been playing an important role in the urbanization process, and more and more people turn to this way for outside activities. However, citizen’s need for railway transportation has been exceeding the development of its facilities, which leads to the unbalance of supply-demand relationship of national railway transportation. Therefore, with the exception of enhancing the facilities of railway transportation, stop-schedule problem for railway transit should be transferred from people’s experience to scientific methods. And this is what this paper presents. The main work of this paper includes two problems as follows:1. Market demand for the future passenger flow. Forecasting and analyzing the future passenger flow is the base of making appropriate stop-schedule. Fulfilling the demand of passengers and reducing the outside cost of passengers should be placed the first target of making stop-schedule. So it is very important to forecast future passenger flow;2. Detailed studied the stop-schedule. Different stop-schedule influence different in the operating costs of the railway company, the operating efficiency and the satisfaction of passengers. Therefore, a multiobjective with0-1programming model for the optimal allocation of stop-schedule is built. Using the historical and forecasting passenger flow data, compared with the traditional all-stop stop-schedule, this paper shows that the model that comes up with the optimal stop-schedule works better.