The Evaluation System Of Regional Ancillary Service Market

Under market environment, major changes have been brought in the ancillary service market's operation mechanism, in order to protect the power grid's security, stability and economic, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to establish a whole set of scientific evaluation indexes system and method for regional ancillary service market's operation and risk. Based on the evaluation index system, comprehensive evaluation method and risk measurement, a Multi-angle all-round comprehensive evaluation system for ancillary service market is established.Firstly, a evaluation indexes system for ancillary service market is established, which includes of five aspects: technical assessment, market condition, market behavior, market performance and market risk.The index framework is made up of 10 lower indexes, 5 mid-class indexes and 1 upper index.The quality of ancillary service market can be decided by comparing with the upper index.Secondly, taking the complexity of the indexes, uncertainty caused by various reasons, and subjective judgment which may exist in quantitative process of weight into account, the gray relative analysis based on entropy weight evaluation model is established. The entropy weight is developed to determine the weight of lower indexes and describe the importance of them. Using gray relative analysis to measure the merits of market which can overcome the subjective effect on the evaluation results by traditional method (eg, expert scoring, AHP, etc.).Then, by using the proposed evaluation indexes system and gray relative analysis based on entropy weight, the evaluation results of five PJM regional ancillary service market are compared to verify feasibility and effectiveness of evaluation indexes system and method.The growth of uncertainty factors, such as the ancillary service's price and demand fluctuations, leads to increased risk. Finally, risk identification, assessment and quantitative analysis is discussed.VAR theory is introduced to ancillary service market risk modeling and analysis. By an example, it shows the effective result: the model can quantify the potential loss of grid company when it purchase ancillary service of each time, thus to provide support for optimal decision.Evaluation and comparation system of ancillary service market operation and risk measurement is developed in the paper.It can provide aided analysis tools for market operator and supervisor, thus give a certain reference for market's healthy operation and scientific management.