The Study On Evaluation Of The Compound Water System Coordinated And Sustainable Development Of Taian City

Water system has both the natural, social, economic and ecological attributes. On the one hand it's the basic element of the ecological element environment and the part of the structure and function of eco-system, on the other hand it's an important material base and strategic resources of the economic and social development, the mutually coupled of water resources, social-economic and ecological subsystems is called the compound water system. Since the status of the number of water resources per capita is low, the spatial and temporal distribution is uneven, lacking of coordination between the water and arable land, and the rapid development of industrial and agricultural and the sharp increase in the urban and rural population which need the increasing demand of water resources on one hand and cause the more and more pollution. The compound water system of some regions and cities appears difficult to sustainable use and development, the speed and scale of the development among the water resources, social-economic and ecological environment appears lacking of coordination and discord. The problem of unsustainable and inconsistent has become the"bottleneck"which constrains the local resources, environment and socio-economic development.This thesis on the basis of set out the importance and purpose of which maintain the coordinated and sustainable development of water resources, socio-economic and ecological environment, explores the method which evaluates the coordinated and sustainable development of compound local and regional water system, and set the Tai'an city as the study example. First, using the frequency statistics, theoretical analysis and expert consultation to set indexes, according to the corresponding objectives and principles, initial established a four layer hierarchical evaluation index system which contains target layer, field layer, rule layer and index layer which has 36 indexes, using the AHP method makes a total order of the various indexes according to their importance extent, streamlines the index system, in order to improve the representation and accuracy of the index system in evaluating the coordinated and sustainable development of compound water system. Finally, it established an index system for evaluating the coordinated and sustainable development of compound water system which contains one target, three field, ten principles and twenty-three specific indexes. Secondly, the study discusses several popular and extensively used methods at home and abroad which used for evaluating the coordinated and sustainable development, by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various evaluation methods, combining with the evaluation system which established in the study have a lot of quantitative indexes and the character of strong linear relationship between indexes, using principal component analysis method establishes the regional compound water system coordinated and sustainable development evaluation model. Principal component analysis uses the lower-dimension method, not only fundamentally resolves the information overlap between indexes problem, but also the weight of each general index is not determined by human but by contribution rate. This method overcomes some of flaws which the weight being determined by man, and makes only one objective, reasonable, comprehensive evaluation result. Makes the Tai'an city as an example, and takes the statistical data from 1998 to 2008 of Tai'an city into the model, using SPSS statistical software and according to the principal component analysis, calculates the sustainable development index scores of water subsystem, social and economic system, ecological subsystem and compound water system of each year from 1998 to 2008 of Tai'an city. The study compares and analyzes the scores of each year, and analyzes the trend of compound water system score and the causes of this trend. Using the coordination calculation model, calculates the degree of the coordinated development among the subsystems from 1998 to 2008 of Tai'an city, compares and categories the results in longitudinal way. By analyzing the results of the two calculation model we can obtain that the sustainable development index of the compound water system of Tai'an from 1998 to 2008 is showing a rising trend. This shows the indexes level have been improving in some extent, and moving towards to the direction of sustainable development. However, the development levels and trends of each subsystem are different, the coordination degree trend of the subsystems shows great fluctuation and the overall level is low, especially in recent years, the trend is moving towards to an uncoordinated direction. Then using the gray model GM (1, 1) and the least squares polynomial fitting model, fits and predicts the sustainable development evaluation score curve of the compound water system of Tai'an by the Matlab software. According to the fitting result can be drawn that gray prediction model has less precise, does not meet the fitting requirement, but the other is not, so the study uses the least squares polynomial fitting model to fit and predict the result curve. Finally, based on the evaluation and analysis for the calculation results of the sustainable development index and coordination degree of the compound water system of Tai'an, this study summarizes the main factors which influent the compound water system coordinated and sustainable development. According to each factor, proposes some measures and countermeasures which should be taken for keeping the coordinated and sustainable development of the compound water system of Tai'an. This study has great significance for the coordinated and sustainable development of the compound water system of Tai'an.