Operation Optimization Study Of Bus Transit System For Large Special Events

As an efficient transportation mode, public transport system plays an important role in the evacuation of large special events. There is a high concentration of passengers when large special events have been held, so bus scheduling optimization has become increasingly an issue of public concerns in the recent years. Based on bus passenger demand during large special events, this thesis focuses on bus scheduling optimization model and algorithm used for large special events in order to provide high quality ground transportation services to the audience for large special events.Firstly, this thesis reviews domestic and foreign literatures about transportation management for large special events and bus schedule optimization. Based on the literature review, definition and classification of large special events are discussed. Moreover, this thesis analyzes characteristics of traffic demand and public transport organization during events and proposes bus scheduling strategies used for large special events.Second, by analyzing difference between traffic forecasts for large special events and conventional traffic forecasts, passenger forecasting for large special events is discussed based on four-stage method. In view of the traffic characteristics of large special events, three steps of bus passenger demand forecasting, which are trip attraction, generation and trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment, are analyzed.Thirdly, according to features of audience evacuation, a bus scheduling optimization model is proposed, which is based on the predicted bus passenger demand. The objective function of the model includes bus operating cost and waiting time of audience in large special event evacuation, so that bus transit system can evacuate audience timely with low operating costs. Then, a Genetic Algorithm is developed by MATLAB to solve the model in this thesis. A large special event held in Capital Gymnasium in Beijing is selected as a case study in order to validate the proposed model and solving algorithm. The bus scheduling optimization results are evaluated by comparing waiting time cost, operating cost and total cost of before and after optimization.Finally, software of bus scheduling optimization for large special events is developed based on bus scheduling optimization model and algorithm proposed in this thesis. According to functional demand analysis of this software, the overall structure and data flow are designed. This software provides supports for the practical use of the proposed optimization model and algorithm.