Reliablity Evaluation And Prediction Of Exsiting Reinforced Concrete Structure

China is at the period when new constructions and maintenance & reconstruction take the same investment, and the time when maintenance & reconstruction take up most investment in constructions is approaching.There are a great number of existing structures which deteriorate seriously in our country. The users have to take a series of detecting, maintenance, and reinforcement measures. To make a sentific and reasonable management plan, we must evaluate the reliablity of the existing structure and predict its trend of development in the future.The paper introduces the fuzzy theory and Markov chain theory into the evaluation and prediction of the existing reinforced concrete structure, established the existing reinforced concrete structure reliablity fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, which can evaluate the present reliablity of the structure. AHP model is used to determine the weight of the idexes of each grade. Traditional AHP takes a determined number as judgement matrix elements, which neglected the difference of the understanding among different people. In view of this disadvantage, the paper introduced the extension interval numbers to correct the problem and improve the reliablity of the index weight.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to the reliability of the existing reinforced concrete structure , the paper introduced Markov random process theopry to the prediction of the structural reliability in its residual life, mapped the structure of fuzzy reliability predicted curve to response the development and changes of the reliability, which can provide the user a basis for their decision-making.