Research On Early Warning-Prediction Of Water Pollution In Xinjiang River Water Source

Water is the element of urban survival. The clean, adequate and stable water supply is the basis of urban development. In modern society with accelerating urbanization process, the city's dependence on water supply becomes more obvious. But many cities at home and abroad are facing varying degrees of water pollution in water resource, and urban water resources are under consistent threats of various pollution events.In this paper, the drinking water sources evaluation of XinJiang River, the emergency treatment and water quality prediction of emergency water pollution incidents were investigated. Through the analysis of water sources distribution in Xinjiang River watersheds, the existing water quality situation, and the distribution of major industrial risk sources, the pollution sources with higher risk were located. Moreover the models predictions and improvement suggestions on emergency water pollution incidents were conducted to guarantee the safety of water environment in major drinking water sources. The main contents are listed as followings:(1) Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the existing water quality situations of eight water sources including the Wanshou Palace and et. al.. The results demonstrated that the water quality of most water sources were GrandⅠand GrandⅡaccording to the standards of GB 3838-2002, except the water intake of Xuri water plant in Shangrao county which belonged to GrandⅢ. And in the light of the maximum membership degree law, all the water quality in eight water sources belonged to GrandⅠof ground water quality, indicating the favorable existing water qualities in all water sources.(2) Based on the total environmental health risk assessment model, the risks of every water source were evaluated. The results demonstrated that arsenic was the most risky among the chemical carcinogens, mercury was the most risky among the corporeal toxic chemicals, and the risks of other pollutants were basically the same. The total health hazard risk due to all kinds of pollutants was lower than the EPA recommended personal annual risk limit 1.0×10-4. (3) According to the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and total environmental health risk assessment, three water sources were selected as emergency water pollution incidents treatment cases. The results demonstrated that in the normal river flow period, the pollutants discharged by accident sources, although influencing the water quality of downstream water source, did not affect the function of water sources; while in the lower water period, the pollutants discharged by accident sources would exert great impact on the downstream water quality, of which the value of oil reached the limits required by water sources and the contribution value of hexavalent chromium, the value of the contribution value of water quality were 6 times as the original background value.