Research On Scenario Analysis Indicators Of Combined Air Pollution Based On PSR Model

Air is necessary for human survival.However,urban air pollution grows with the rapid economic developments.With the continued growth of China's energy consumption and increasing number of motor vehicles,a new type of air pollution,characterized by NO_X,which is caused mainly by vehicle exhaust is increasingly prominent.It combined with traditional air pollution of coal-burning stack and then formed a new type of combined air pollution.There is no successful experience of control of this type of compound pollution of atmosphere in the world,so it is of great importance to study this type of combined air pollution.This thesis is based on a subject called "the control of regional coordination scenario analysis of air pollution",which is a section 4 sub-topic of a national high-tech research development plan(863) issues,"The Pearl River Delta complex atmospheric pollution control and integrated technology integration model".The "Pressure-State- Response"(PSR) model is used as a framework to build a index system for scenario analysis of combined atmospheric pollution.The contents include three parts,those are method study of scenario analysis index system of combined air pollution,index system buiding,application of the index system.(1)Clearing the main characteristics and hazard.of combined air pollution in China.(2)Combined air pollution control is seen as a focus of decision-making,principles and purpose and steps of constructing the index system were proposed.(3)With PSR model used as a framework and the thought of "uncertainty",a indicators system focus on scenario analysis of combined air pollution is built.Three levels are included in the indicators system,which are target layer A,criteria layer B and elements layer C.Target layer is just the scenario of combined air pollution.There are 25 indicators in the system(mainly are pressure and state indicators),there are no specific indicators in respose system,which is focus on qualitative description.(4) An application of the constructed indicators system.After the construction of the indicators syste,Guangzhou was selected for a application.Analyses of Guangzhou City at this stage(mainly in 2007) of the indicators were done.This paper also studies some driving relations between air pollution emissions and energy consumption and economic development.