Study On Forecast Model Of Mine Roof Water Inrush Based On Grey System

The disaster of mine water burst is one of the five mine disasters, mine behind the water has an expansive future and the forecast of mine roof water inrush becomes an extremely important content in the mine water inrush prevention and cure, along with the increase of energy sources requirement by country economy. The task is one that research on application of Grey System in mine roof water inrush. By analyzing the pertinent complication and mechanism of mine roof water disaster, and combining the character of Grey System Theory, it builds the forecast system of mine roof water disaster. It is carried out that the forecast model is exact relatively. It is an effective method in mine roof water inrush.By utilizing Grey System and Analytic Hierachy Process, we can improve the method of assessment and forecast in Safety. Because the rationality of each factors' numerical value is related to the reliability of conclusions, we combine the subjective and objective factors with realities and use Analytic Hierachy Process to compute the values of each factors.The system based on Grey model is made up of two parts; one is factors analysis of mine roof inrush, and the other is forcast the value of water inrush. Factors analysis of water inrush offers user parameters of water inrush, so we could use it for reference in preventing disasters. The system of forecast is based on Grey theory. It combines each factors of water inrush to calculate capacity of water inrush. Meanwhile, the task makes use of Analytic Hierachy Process to fix on each factor values. The whole system is based on language VB. It's very intuitional and easily to operate.