The Study On Sensitivity Analysis Of SO₂ Emission Reduction Factors And Countermeasure In Electricity Industry

Based on the analysis of energy sources structure in China, coal as main flue will continue in a long time. The coal consumption is increasing, and most coal is used in electricity industry. With increasing of coal consumption in electricity industry, the SO₂ emission quantity is also growing. SO₂ which is discharged by coal-fired brings serious environmental problems in the whole world, on the one hand, SO₂ emission leads to air pollution; on the other hand, it causes large scale acid rain problem. Therefore more and more policies are work out for controlling SO₂ emission. Those policies have effect on controlling and reducing SO₂ emission, but how those policies to affect SO₂ reducing emission, and which policy takes as primary factor on SO₂ reducing emission, there is no quantificational research on it at present.SO₂ reducing emission factors in electricity industry are studied in this research, and under economy level, technology level and policy request, the SO₂ reducing emission factors are put forward. Then referenced to foreign control experience, the important sensitivity factors of SO₂ reducing emission are given. Furthermore, single factor sensitivity analysis is used as basic principle for calculating SO₂ reducing emission sensitivity in important factors. Moreover, some control Countermeasures are given. The research indicates that:1. According to the economy level, technology level and policy request in thermal power industry, SO₂ reducing emission factors can be divided into the following factor: GDP, elasticity coefficient of electricity, total coal consumption, sulfur content in coal, the capacity of FGD, the efficiency of FGD system, the cutting capacity of small thermal power units, the emission charge standard and population growing.2. Referenced to the foreign control experience, the important sensitivity factors of SO₂ reducing emission are given, such as sulfur content in coal, the capacity of FGD, the efficiency of FGD system and the cutting capacity of small thermal power units.3. Using elasticity coefficient of electricity, the installed generation capacity of electricity and thermal power are predicted, which are 924 370 000 kW and 717 800 000kW correspondingly.4. Through the sensitivity analysis of important sensitivity factors on SO₂ reducing emission, it will show SO₂ reducing emission sensitivity: the cutting capacity of small thermal power units 0.1175, the capacity of FGD on present units 0.3285, the capacity of FGD on future increase units 0.5540, sulfur content in coal 0.9985, the efficiency of FGD system 0.8825.5. Combining with existing policies, the key sensitivity factors of SO₂ reducing emission are the efficiency of FGD system, the capacity of FGD on future increase units and the capacity of FGD on present units.