Study On Spilled Oil Trajectory Contingency Forecast System For Dalian Bay

Dalian port is one of the most important shipping centers in north east China. In recent years, many large oil spill accidents happened in Dalian bay water, which resulted in great economic losses in natural fishery, aquaculture and tourism, and also brought great harm to the ocean ecology environment. Therefore, it's necessary to establish and perfect the oil spill emergency response mechanism, and develop the oil spill trajectory forecast model and software system, to provide accurate and graphical decision-making support to the emergency responder to minimize the damage and loss caused by the oil spill accidents.In this paper, the damage effects on both the ocean ecology environment and the social economy resulting from marine oil spill accidents were introduced in detail. Based on the analysis of the behavior of spilled oil at sea, the environmental dynamic factors such as wind, tidal current and wind-driven current were studied. Based on the research of the numerical modeling theories and methods on the spilled oil at sea, a Lagrange oil-particle concept based oil spill trajectory numerical model, which can simulate several important transportation and weathering processes such as advection, spreading, evaporation and emulsification, etc., was built. Besides, both the nature and shipping conditions of Dalian bay were presented, and the risks of oil spills in the sensitive resource areas were also analyzed.At the end, an oil spill trajectory forecast information system for the Dalian bay was developed. The system has many functions such as the geographic information system (GIS), oil spill emergency response information inquiring, and numerical prediction of the oil spill trajectory, and dynamic graphical display of simulation results. The system was applied to simulate the Arteaga oil spill accident happened in Dalian bay, it shows that the simulation results are well agreed with the field investigation report, and it's feasible that the system can be used in actual oil spill accident emergency response to provide the effective decision-making supports.