Research On Marketplace's Fire Risks Reliability Evaluation Method Based On Fuzzy-Gray Theory

As public places, because of the considerable density and flow of people, the security of marketplace is closely related to the lives of people who visit them. Fires in department store frequently take place, which causes deaths and injuries of people and the serious loss of the property. Therefore, for so many years government organization and fire-fighting department home and abroad have already put emphasis on prevention and reliable evaluation of fire risks.Recently, some research departments home and abroad have been working on the reliable evaluation, and have already got some great achievements. From the perspective of statistics, after being evaluating by experienced experts and taking effective measures, the rate of fires is comparatively low, even fires really take place, most of them also can be put out before causing loss. So we can get a conclusion: the reliable evaluation of fire risks is attached much importance.It is very fuzzy and comparative to define an experienced expert on evaluating fire risks. Even they all are experienced, different opinions about the same problem occur. Thus, how to evaluate fire risks scientifically, effectively and conveniently is one subject for experts on evaluating fire risks and inspecting section.During the course of evaluating fire risks, there are a lot of fuzzy and gray characteristics, that is to say, the dividing line is not clear enough and data can be used is very few. So This paper, based on research and studies, analyses the weakness and strongpoint of the method of fire risks evaluation; considering the characters of fire risks, put forward this paper which is intended to evaluate fire risks by using method based on fuzzy and gray theory. After developing evaluating software, researching and experimenting on it, the module has been optimized. The experiments has already proved that this method can give better reliable evaluation on fire risks that is to say, which is more advanced, practical and convenient compared with traditional technologies, for example, FTA technology.The inventions of this paper are:⑴The factors which influence the reliability of evaluating fire risks are a lot, furthermore there are a lot of uncertainties, so we can not measure the probability of events with accurate data. Traditional FTA technology can not meet needs. Fuzzy and gray theory, as a means of dealing with uncertain and incomplete information, can effectively make up for the deficiency of probability in analyzing the complicated system .So this paper combines the fuzzy and gray theory with the evaluation of fire risks and designs the model of the reliability evaluation of fire risks based on fuzzy and gray theory.⑵Based on evaluation model, using VB, operating on the platform of Windows or Windows NT, the software of reliability evaluation of fire risks based on the fuzzy and gray theory has been developed.⑶Choosing two typical marketplaces in Suzhou, using software developed, evaluation of fire risks has been fulfilled and then the model and software have been optimized. The experiment has proved facility of operation and practicability of the method which can evaluate marketplace's fire risks more effectively than traditional FTA technology.Finally, through concluding the research work, the effective application range has been defined and the weaknesses has been clear, which provide the theoretical and experimental fundamental for further theoretical research and practical application of reliability evaluation of fire risks.