The Simulation Of Runoff And Response To Climat Change Of Liyuan River Basin In Ansu

This study simulates the surface runoff in the upper reaches of Liyuan River above Yinggezui reservoir with SWAT model. It is helpful for water management in this area. It is also useful to bring water saving into effect of the society and improve the zoology environment which is increasingly destroying.According to the datum including DEM, the land use map and the soil type map, the study area is divided into 45 sub basins and 184 hydrology response units. The attribute database is built by combining datum with SWAT model. Then based on existing runoff materials of Yinggezui reservoir the years 1990-1994 are chosen as the validation phase and the years 1995-1999 are selected as verification phase. The results are that the correlation of modeling in calibration phase and in verification phase are 0.97 and 0.94, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients are 0.83 and 0.86 respectively, which are all better than 0.75. This good simulating effect indicates that the established SWAT model can be applied to the surface runoff simulation of Liyuan River Basin. Lastly, completing the climate forecasting the year from 2009-2018, the SWAT model is rebuilt to simulate surface runoff through the climate forecasting data predicted by auto-regressive model and time domain analysis. The results indicate that runoff has apparent downtrend. Analyze the response of the runoff on climate change, the results indicate that the response of runoff to temperature is more sensitive than precipitation.