| With further advance of economic globalization, the economic intercourses between countries are becoming closer and closer. The exchange rate, as an important factor connecting to the international economy, affects the international competitiveness of a country or region, then have an important impact on its import and export trade. Since entering the 21st century, RMB faces enormous pressure of appreciation. July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced that the system of RMB was such that it would no longer be pegged to the U.S. dollar, but based on market demand, referring to a basket of currencies float, and also announced that the RMB to the dollar by 2%. Since then, the revaluation of the RMB exchange rate has continued the trend, as at the end of 2006 and the end of 2007, the RMB to the dollar, compared to pre-China's reform of exchange rate, appreciation rate of 3. 75%, respectively, and 10. 28%. And the current revaluation of the Yuan still will be further. Under such circumstances, whether the RMB exchange rate fluctuation on foreign trade has a significant impact even more concern. In this paper, the author, choosing the high export-oriented special economic zone, Xiamen, as a research object, specifically study changes of the RMB exchange rate to its foreign trade, and conclude, expecting to guide the practice.Firstly, this paper overviews the domestic and foreign literatures on the exchange rate effect of import and export trade briefly, and then we , based on related theory of exchange rate, introduce the real effective exchange rate, and outline the classical theory of exchange rate change in the balance of trade for the following empirical analysis to provide a theoretical basis. In the third chapter, we detail some empirical Analysis, such as the cointegration test, pulse corresponding function, variance decomposition. In the part of empirical analysis, we briefly introduce the Xiamen's situation of import and export trade from 1984. On this basis, we give a detailed analysis to the RMB exchange rate changes on the import and export trade in Xiamen, using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. In qualitative analysis, by comparative analysis to the weighted exchange rate index with Xiamen's import and export and trade balance movements trends, the author obtains that the moment of changes in the exchange rate index will be that of changes in exports, exports change more quickly than exchange rate index. At the same time, the trend of both changes is basically consistent. In quantitative analysis, the author, based on the incompletely replaced import and export demand function models , seasonally adjusts the index of indicators, constructs the VAR model, then does unit root test and cointegration test, Granger causality test, variance decomposition, and other dynamic economy Study, finally gains conclusions: In the part of unit root test, as we know, the index indicators are I(1); by Johansen cointegration test to the import and export demand equation, author receives significant cointegration relationship, Xiamen export trade flexibility for the exchange rate is 0.589286, Xiamen's imports flexibility of exchange rate is 0.928855, and in 10% of the significant levels both significantly meet Marshall - Lerner conditions. Through the Granger causality test, we have seen that exchange rate fluctuation is not Granger reasons of import and export of Trade. In the variance decomposition analysis, we have also seen that it is limited that the exchange rate changes are interpreted changes of Xiamen's import and export. Overall, in the long term, exchange rate fluctuations on the right have a significant impact on the import and export, but in the short term but not significant. In the final part, according to the conclusion of the study, aimed at Xiamen's business, we have proposed policy recommendations to a revaluation of the Yuan presently.
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