| This paper is divided into four main parts of study on RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate.Firstly, this paper summarize the classic equilibrium exchange rate theorie. With the result, the concept and connotation of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate and the basic hypothesis of calculation model are presented. Secondly, considering the comparative advantage of BEER model on the calculating of Equilibrium Exchange Rate , the paper Selection BEER model as the basic idea of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate'calculation model. Simultaneous, combined with basic idea of BEER and the main experience of study on RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate, the article construct a model of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate'calculation.Thirdly, the paper makes empirical research on RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate. The study's period focus on the period after the exchange rate system reform in Jul, 2005. Considering the stationary and acquired character of data, it adopts RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate'calculation model and H-P filter to carry out an empirical study on RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate during 2006-2008 and makes an analysis on the results and change trends. The results indicate that RMB Real Exchange Rate is undervalued twice and overvalued twice from Jan,2006 to Dec,2008. Among them, RMB Real Exchange Rate is undervalued from Jan,2006 to Jun,2006 and Apr,2007, overvalued from Jul,2006to Mar,2007 and from May,2007 to Dec,2008. The undervalued range is less than 0.8%, overvalued range is less than 5%. In short, RMB Real Exchange Rate values are stable basically without great fluctuate. But in the long run, RMB Real Exchange Rate is continuously increasing in value.Finally, the paper puts forward solving approaches and relevant countermeasures on RMB Real Exchange Rate misalignment.
|
PDF Full Text Request