| There are many researches about exchange rate determining models, but lots of them choose the methods of econometrics which pay little attention to analyzing the inside mechanism of the system. And western exchange rate determining models are based on the free trade, the opening of capital market, and so on, so they do not concern so much about this kind of thing in the developing countries.In order to solve the problems mentioned above, it is necessary to set up a System Dynamics model of RMB exchange rate with Chinese characters. It combines the qualitative information and quantitative information of the practical system reasonably, overcomes the flaws in the econometrics which neglect the principles inside of the models, and implements the western exchange rate determining theories into the RMB exchange rate determining.First, this thesis makes the system analysis of the RMB exchange rate determining system, describes the Casual Relationship diagrams considering both the import and the export, and provides the function and management mechanism of the system based on qualitative analysis. Second, it provides the system Flow diagrams, sets up a system dynamics simulation model of RMB exchange rate determining with VensimTM, which is a system dynamics simulation tools, and then makes a further quantitative analysis. Third, it tests the model by validity verification of system dynamics, and guarantees that the information and the action of the model reflect the practical attributes and the movement of the practical system. At the end, it designs four policy methods: low increase in domestic economy, currency inflation, the policy of restraining export and import. And then it does some simulation for these four methods, and finds the way to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, provides policy suggestions: expanding the domestic requirement, keeping a fine macro economy situation, valorizing price, optimizing the export structure and broadening the import reasonably.
|
PDF Full Text Request