The Influence Of Upper-level Atmospheric Circulation And Temperature Anomalies On The Surface Temperature In China

This paper used the monthly data derived from ECMWF reanalysis and the 160 stations observations from CMA covering the period of 1960 to 2002 in order to diagnosis the lag affections of the stratospheric circulation and temperature anomalies on the surface temperature in china by using methods of composite analysis and singular value decomposition analysis, calculating the Eliassen-Palm Flux and choosing forecast factors to create a multiple linear regression model.It is found that the national surface temperature in winter is deeply affected by the mid-high latitude stratospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere. The most significant character is that the variations of surface temperature are remarkably impacted by the key anomalies area which located at 40°N ~ 60°N, 90°W from stratosphere to troposphere, and the anomalies appearing in the stratosphere seems two month before the surface temperature anomalies appearing. There is an obvious difference between the winter and summer influence factors of surface temperature in stratosphere. The summer surface temperature of northwest china, drainage basin of Yellow River and northeast china are significantly influenced by the mid-low latitude stratospheric circulation and temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere two month ahead. The temperature anomalies, the wind anomalies over mid-low latitude Pacific Ocean and the mid latitude geopotential height anomalies in stratosphere play an important role in the variety of the national surface temperature in summer.It has been discovered that the relevant meteorological elements in stratosphere can be used as predictors in the multiple linear regression model to predict agreeably the anomalies of the surface temperature in China in both winter and summer.