An Analysis Of Exchange Rate In A Random Model

Exchange rate of RMB is very important to the sustainable and healthy development of China's economy, and affects the stability of economy and society. With the help of random optimization model of representative behaviour, the thesis, under the hypothesis of small-scale open economy, deals with exchange rate decision mechanism and has succeeded in obtaining an explicit formula which shows the relationship of exchange rate change and its random fluctuation to government policy and economic growth. On the basis of the model, the thesis also covers the relationship of the instability of China's economy, features of capital composition and policies to the interior and exterior balance of China's economy, and the balance of international revenue and expenditure, and exchange rate. At last, the thesis has made a thorough analysis of the influence of policy effect and growth risk on the trend of exchange rate.