| Study on the response of plant phenology to climate change is the focus of ecology and climatology at present. Based on phenological and meteorological data of He'nan Province, statistic methods and mathematical analogy method were applied to analyze the variation characters of climate change, and to discuss the impact of air temperature, sunshine and precipitation on woody plant phenology, and the response of spring phenology to climate change. According to the relationship between climate change and phenological change, the prediction model of the first-bloom date of woody plant was established. The main conclusions were as followed:The average temperature of He'nan Province has been increasing most obviously since 1990's in recent 45 years, especially in winter and spring. The minimum temperature has also been increasing generally. The temperature increased in different extent for most regions, while a cooling center appeared in the center part. The annual and seasonal change of sunshine hours in the whole province presented a significantly reducing trend. The reducing extent was increasing with the increasing of the longitude. Total amount of rainfall showed a slightly decreasing trend. The precipitation has reduced in spring and autumn while increased in summer and winter. It has also increased in center region and most areas of the east while reduced in other regions. The change of relative humidity showed a rising trend, especially in summer. The south parts and some other areas in the northwest of the whole province were becoming drier while other regions wetter. Total amount of evaporation appeared a trend of fluctuating decrease, occurring in almost the whole province except in Xinyang Region. The decreasing extent was increasing with the heightening of the latitude.Spring events of woody plants, such as leaf unfolding and blooming, has been primarily promoted even earlier in recent 25 years, whereas autumn events, such as leaf colouring, has showed advancing and delaying the two trends. Thus, the average annual growing season has been shortened or lengthened. The spring phenology had high correlation with meteorological factors, while autumn phases were insensitive to climate change. Spring phenological variation of wood plants was influenced most strongly by temperature change, and followed by sunshine, and then by precipitation. Temperature in late winter and early spring played a critical role on the spring phenophase of woody plant. The spring phenophase would be delayed if the sunshine hours during a long time of prior period increased, while advanced if the sunshine hours approached the date commenced of phenophase increased. The effect of precipitation, and its extent and periods on spring phenology of woody plant varied with the region and the type of the plant.The response of spring phenology of woody plant to climate warming was analyzed with Zhengzhou Region as an example. The spring phenology phenomenon showed marked negative correlation with average temperature in winter and spring, as well as annual average temperature and annual and spring accumulated temperature. There was an abrupt change of plant spring phenology following the climate jump occurred in 1990s fore and after. In case that the temperature in winter and spring increased 1℃, plant spring phenophase would advance by 2.1～5.0 days, and the annual average temperature increased 1℃in the future, the spring phenophase would advance by 1.6～13.7 days. The prediction model of the first-bloom date of woody plant was established based on the phenophase of Robinia hispida, which was most sensitive to climate change. The result showed that the analog result was best taking 5℃as biological lowest temperature and 38℃as upper limit temperature of growth and development of Robinia hispida. The correlation coefficient between simulated value and observed value was 0.8898, and the historical fitting rate achieved 78.9%, and the observed prediction errors in 2005 and 2006 were within 2 days.
|
PDF Full Text Request