Grey Dynamic Modeling Technique And Application

Grey System Theory (GST) studies on the indeterminate system with "a few samples" and "poor" information, which is in the situation of "part of information known, part of information unknown". By generating and developing the "part of information known", GST can help us understand and recognize the real world, and help us rightly master and describe the operational behavior and evolutional law of the investigated system. Grey Dynamic Modeling Technique (GDMT) is the core of GST, and is also the bridge between the GST and practice. Therefore, this paper mainly discusses the GDMT. By investigating and analyzing the presented gray modeling methods, this paper details the research results and evolutional situation of GDMT.Firstly this paper deeply analyzes and investigates the principle of GDMT, especially that of GM(n,h) model and SCGM(n,h) model. Then some new improved methods are proposed for GM(1,1) model and SCGM(1,1)a0 model. In the end the process and realization methods of GDMT are displayed in detail based on the example of famous "TV problem". There are such new research results as follows:Analyze the structure principle of GM(1,1) , and point out that there exists defect at the coefficient's choice of its prediction formula. Based on the principle that the total of errors equals to zero, a novel calculating method is proposed for this problem. Then the new method is further extended according to the criteria of absolute errors under ideal situation. A novel extended SCGM(1,1)a0 model is set up in the background of considering the error disturbances. Use GM(1,1) metabolism model to predict the output of TV and get satisfactory effects. This is the first time for scholars to use such way to resolve this problem. The thought of subsection modeling is also put forward, which provides a new idea for resolving realistic problems.